Nearly everything that occurs in Washington this year will take place
against an important and unavoidable backdrop-the combined total of more
than 500 House, Senate and gubernatorial races on the 2010 ballot.
Within that expansive political universe, there is a small galaxy of
candidates and officeholders whose actions-or reactions-are especially
consequential and worth watching because of the role they will play in
shaping the legislative or political environment.
Here is POLITICO's list of 25 of politicians to watch in 2010.
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.)
He's only in his first term, but Grayson's smash-mouth partisan style and
penchant for making provocative statements have already made him one of the
most recognizable House Democrats. While he's won a dedicated following
among progressives, back home he still has some distance to go to secure a
second term in his highly competitive seat.
Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.)
Davis, who is vying to become the first African-American governor in the
Deep South since Reconstruction, has an amazingly delicate balancing act in
front of him. First he must win over skeptics in the Alabama Democratic
establishment to capture the party nomination in the June primary. But he
must do it without compromising his ability to compete as a black candidate
in a conservative state where President Obama and the national Democratic
agenda are highly unpopular. If Davis manages the feat, he'll have rewritten
all the rules of Southern politics.
Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.)
The little-known and quirky Republican, whose second tour of House duty has
been marked by frequent departures from conservative orthodoxy, is in
jeopardy of being ousted from his seat in South Carolina's June primary. If
he loses, chances are high that it will rekindle-or advance-the narrative
about a GOP civil war. And that's not what Republicans want to be talking
about five months out from the midterm election.
Maine State Senate President Libby Mitchell (D)
The only woman ever to have served as both a state House Speaker and a state
Senate president, Mitchell is now reaching for the trifecta with her 2010
bid to be governor. She's currently the Democratic frontrunner in a crowded
field for the open seat; if she wins, women would hold three of the four
seats in Maine's congressional delegation and the governorship.
Marco Rubio (R)
Rubio, a former state House Speaker, has managed to turn the GOP primary for
Florida's open Senate seat from a blowout to a barnburner. In the process of
challenging Republican Gov. Charlie Crist-and the national GOP
establishment-the youthful Cuban-American has emerged as a favorite of
national conservatives and stoked the debate over the direction of the
party.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.)
After presiding over a hugely successful 2008 election cycle as Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, Van Hollen must now figure out
how to limit the party's losses in what's likely to be a tough midterm
election. The extent to which he holds down the damage will have a
significant effect on his House leadership trajectory.
Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-Va.)
He hasn't even been sworn into office yet, but as a result of his runaway
November victory McDonnell is already being touted as one of the GOP's
leading lights and a model for how Republican candidates can win in
competitive states.
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.)
With a House ethics committee investigation hanging over him, the powerful
Ways and Means Committee chairman could emerge as a serious election-year
headache for Democratic leadership-and for vulnerable junior members of the
caucus, especially if the GOP gets traction with its message that Rangel is
symptomatic of a majority that has been corrupted by its power.
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.)
The only Hispanic member of an elected leadership team where the three top
Democrats are all at least 69 years old, Becerra, 51, appears to have a
bright future in the House. His moves on the recently-introduced immigration
reform bill could help determine just how bright.
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.)
DeMint is carving out a niche in the Senate as a conservative's
conservative, one who is willing to step on toes on either side of the aisle
as he creates his own alternate power base. He is plugged into the tea party
movement and, though he has his own re-election to worry about this year,
has nevertheless become a patron of conservative candidates across the
country looking to challenge candidates favored by the Republican
establishment.
Gov. Deval Patrick (D-Mass.)
Patrick's popularity has plummeted after missteps and a devastating budget
crisis, and he now faces the prospect of a tough three-way race for
re-election to a second term. In ways both large and small, however, the
White House has signaled that it has no intent of letting Patrick, the
president's friend and an early supporter, go down without a fight.
California Attorney General Jerry Brown (D)
Yes, it's that Jerry Brown-the former California governor who served two
terms beginning in the mid-1970s and made three failed bids for the White
House. Nearly 40 years after his first statewide win, Brown is the
frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for governor.
Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.)
Still in his first term and warmly regarded on the right for his epic 2004
victory over former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, Thune is beginning
to draw notice from his colleagues and other veteran Republicans as an
articulate conservative who can effectively hammer the Democratic majority
with a smile on his face. He's likely to face only nominal opposition in his
re-election this fall and could surface as a presidential contender from the
GOP's establishment wing.
Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D)
The son of the vice president, Biden's decision on whether or not to run for
Delaware's open Senate seat could affect the upper chamber's balance of
power. If he decides against challenging GOP Rep. Mike Castle, his father's
old seat is almost certain to fall into Republican hands.
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.)
Though Dodd remains a key legislative player, the situation back home is
dire: The non-partisan Cook Political Report ranks the five-term Democrat's
seat as "lean Republican," making his seat, at the moment, the single best
pickup opportunity out of all the 37 Senate seats that are up for election
in 2010.
Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas)
Sessions, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee,
has the wind at his back going into the 2010 midterm elections. But he still
has a tough year ahead of him. He must harness the energy of grassroots
conservative populists-no easy feat since many will be frustrated and
disappointed after the primary season is over-and figure out a way to
finance GOP incumbents and challengers in an election year when the NRCC
figures to be at a considerable financial disadvantage.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)
The polling data out of Nevada is grim, and his job shepherding the
Democratic agenda through the Senate links his fate to the national
political environment. But almost no one is ready to count out Reid in his
bid for a fifth term because it's not clear yet that the GOP has a
challenger capable of taking him down and Reid will have more than enough
money to remind voters of his clout.
Sarah Palin (R)
Virtually any Republican mentioned as a 2012 presidential contender warrants
watching. But few have the star power or ability to drive headlines like the
former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee-and none of
them will be in as high demand on the 2010 campaign trail as Palin.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)
If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's re-election remains in jeopardy,
attention will inevitably drift-or be pulled-in Schumer's direction. His
role in building the party's 60-seat Senate supermajority and his emergence
as a dominant political force in New York and Washington makes
Schumer-as-majority-leader speculation unavoidable, even with the formidable
presence of Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)
The only Southern Senate Democratic incumbent who is up for re-election this
year, Lincoln has the uniquely difficult challenge of running in a state
where John McCain crushed Barack Obama by 20 points in 2008. If she defies
the polls-which show her seat is in jeopardy-and wins a third term,
Democratic statewide candidates across the South will look to her campaign
for lessons.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas)
For much of the last year, Cornyn's job as National Republican Senatorial
Committee chairman has been an unpleasant one, marked by GOP retirements in
swing states and sharp criticism from grassroots conservatives who are
unhappy with the NRSC's direction. But an election cycle that once looked
hostile to the GOP has suddenly taken a turn for the better and Cornyn is
poised to claim a lion's share of the credit if the GOP ends up whittling
down the 60-seat Democratic Senate majority.
Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.)
The chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus and a key progressive
voice, Lee is increasingly occupying the spotlight on a range of
issues-including Afghanistan and the public option-that seem to conflict
with White House interests. In an election year where many Democrats are
preaching caution and legislative timidity, Lee may find the environment
even more frustrating.
Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.)
While there's no scandal or single overarching issue dogging the first-term
GOP senator, Burr has been plagued by stubbornly weak poll ratings in a
competitive Southern state. As such, Burr makes for a good 2010 bellwether.
If the national environment is as promising as Republican strategists think,
then Burr shouldn't have much trouble winning a second term.
Rod Blagojevich (D)
The corruption trial of the impeached former Democratic governor of
Illinois-just in time to detonate in the middle of the state's heated
contests for governor and Senate. Already, the race for Barack Obama's old
Senate seat is considered a toss-up in this blue state, a predicament that
can be traced directly to Blagojevich.
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D)
Cuomo has been coy about his intentions but polls show he'd easily defeat
wounded Gov. David Paterson in a Democratic primary. If he does challenge
the state's first African American governor, the contest will be a messy
one: many black leaders haven't forgotten Cuomo's bruising 2002 primary
campaign against Carl McCall, the state comptroller who at the time was
vying to become New York's first African-American governor.
Jonathan Martin contributed to this story.
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